What will the 2019 intake of West Midlands Conservative MP’s look for in a new leader?

What made Boris such an election winner and what drove Brexit? The answer is simple: Immigration.

Counter Cut’s content this month is sponsored by The New Talbot.

Credit: The Guardian

Boris Johnson has resigned as Conservative Party leader and will step down as prime minister once a new leader has been selected. Boris and Brexit oversaw a huge conservative wave at the 2019 general election which saw the election of many new West Midlands MP’s including Nicola Richards (West Bromwich East), Shaun Bailey (West Bromwich West), Suzanne Webb (Stourbridge), Jane Stevenson (Wolverhampton North East), Marco Longhi (Dudley North), Saqib Bhatti (Meriden), Stuart Anderson (Wolverhampton South West) and Gary Sambrook (Birmingham Northfield).

Many of these constituencies were Brexit-voting seats that had been held by Labour for long periods of time, delivered to the Conservatives by voters turning blue for the first time. In a post-Brexit and post-Boris world, these MP’s now have to look elsewhere to retain their seats.

With a new leader being elected, policy will be vital to retain these key marginal seats. Boris was able to tap into a working-class populist movement such as Brexit and a return to business-as-usual could gift these seats back to Labour. The new leader’s style of leadership and appeal to red wall voters will be critical.

Before the Chris Pincher scandal, there was an ultimatum for Conservatives. Boris still held some support amongst working class voters who backed Brexit, but after ‘Partygate’ he had lost much of the conservative base in the south. The huge swing in the Tiverton by-election demonstrated this. In contrast, the Wakefield by-election saw a much smaller swing away from the Conservatives, potentially showing that Red Wall voters had not completely abandoned Boris.

To hold their seats in the West Midlands, Conservative MPs will need a leader who can tap into what made Boris such a vote winner, whilst avoiding further scandal and Westminster drama.

West Midland MPs will need an issue to galvanise the blue collar Conservative vote that David Cameron and Theresa May struggled to secure.

That issue is immigration.

Immigration was a key driver of the Brexit vote and remains an issue that brexiteers care deeply about. Nowhere is this more apart than on illegal channel crossings.

The issue is being hotly debated and in a recent poll discussing the Rwanda policy, designed to deter illegal channel crossings, Brexit voters overwhelmingly supported the policy. Making this flagship policy a key focus of their campaign would help the future conservative leader’s appeal in red wall seats.

Credit: Tony Blaire Institute

Rwanda showed how a topic like illegal channel crossings can get the debate over Brexit firing again. Left wing lawyers trying to block the democratic will of the people and Labour party members calling supporters of the policy ‘racist’ adds fuel to the fire. Brexit seems to be over, but the underlying themes behind the debate are not - these issues could win the next conservative leader key voters if they are brave enough to tackle them.

Immigration overwhelmingly affects working class communities. After being ignored by a political class, Boris was able to win their vote by appearing to listen to them and attempting to solve the issue. Leaders have been ignoring the issue, with New Labour supporting and facilitating unchecked immigration from the European Union.

Uncontrolled immigration impacts working class communities negatively, whilst the economic benefit of immigration is felt only by the middle and upper classes. This created the class divide that Boris was able to capitalise on.

Waiting times for council housing have been increased during the age of mass immigration - waiting times in Birmingham can be as long as 20 years for some applicants. With 500 new applicants a day, mass immigration is only making the issue harder. The undercutting of wages also hurts blue collar workers, with traditionally blue collar jobs such as builders, plumbers, and electricians being hit worst by low wage competition. It comes as no surprise that immigration has become a key driver for blue collar workers in deciding how to vote. The economic benefit of mass immigration trickles up not sideways and the political class have failed to get a handle on the issue for decades. 

A new leader has to deal with immigration and take blue collar workers' concerns seriously, rather than run from the issue because it makes them uncomfortable. Making immigration a key election issue will put Labour on the spot, unable to engage with the subject and divided internally on how to approach their policy.

Voters do not trust Labour to take a tough stance on immigration. If a conservative leader takes the issue head-on, they can hold the working class vote that Boris cultivated.

With Rwanda being popular with Brexit voters, any leader who wants to maintain a presence in these newly won West Midlands seats needs to support it and make it work. Illegal channel crossings are dangerous and put migrant’s lives at risk. The electorate want illegal immigration addressed and widely support the Rwanda policy. If they run from the issue, working class voters will stay at home.

A new leader cannot allow Labour to dictate the narrative around immigration. If voters are made to feel as if they are ‘racist’ or ‘ignorant’ by the political class then they will not turn out to vote - these voters will be vital for West Midlands conservatives in the next election.

Comment piece written by Jack Dixon

Counter Cut’s content this month is sponsored by The New Talbot. Enjoy traditional curried, mixed grills and speciality starters that you won’t find elsewhere. Enjoy an extensive range of drinks from draught beers to delicious cocktails.

If you are interested in sponsoring our content, please contact editor@countercut.co.uk